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It’s unlikely that the Trump administration will completely abandon small business contracting, but a change in who those dollars go to appears likely with DEI efforts being rolled back. In this analysis, we establish a baseline for where the spending is today.
Small business contracting goals have long been a staple of the federal market as agencies collect and report spending with a range of minority-owned businesses.
The new Trump administration and its rollback of diversity, equity and inclusion rules appears certain to upend the small business market.
Programs that set goals for awarding contracts to small business categories like women-owned, 8(a) and tribally-owned businesses are established by laws.
Congress in 1988 passed the law that required that 23% of federal prime contract dollars go to small businesses. The same law established a 5% goal for small disadvantaged businesses, also called 8(a).
Setting aside the Trump administration’s actions, the 8(a) program has been under attack in recent years. In July 2023, a federal district court ruled that the Small Business Administration cannot automatically allow companies into the program if the owners were members of a historically-discriminated against group.
Instead, the individual must outline how they faced discrimination that hurts their chances at business success.
The Ultima v. Agriculture Department case is currently under appeal, with the company arguing that the lower court should have found the preference program unconstitutional.
If that happens, the 8(a) program would cease to exist.